"Deprive a person of oxygen and he will turn blue, collapse and eventually die. Deprive economies of credit and a similar process kicks in. As the financial crisis has broadened and intensified, the global economy has begun to suffocate. That is why the world’s central banks have been administering emergency measures, including a round of co-ordinated interest-rate cuts on Wednesday October 8th. With luck they will prevent catastrophe. They are unlikely to avert a global recession". - The Economist.
A história traz-nos a memória do dejá vu:...1837, 1857, 1873, 1907, 1919, 1929, 1939, 1945... e o resto já recordamos nós: 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's e agora a década do zero com números novos mas já velhas crises financeiras como 2001, 2002, 2003.
Imperdível o estudo publicado, em Abril de 2008, sob o título "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of
Financial Crises", por Carmen M. Reinhart e Kenneth S. Rogoff. A partir desse estudo retira-se que, entre os anos 1300–1799, Portugal só por uma vez deixou de cumprir as suas obrigações creditícias com o exterior (external credit default): no ano de 1560; tão bom comportamento não mantivemos no século 19 (incumprimentos nos anos 1828, 1837, 1841, 1845, 1852, 1890). Tendo recuperado credibilidade externa no século 20 (apenas notada pelo estudo a crise bancária de 1920), esperemos que assim continue pelo século 21.
"The urgent task is to prevent a grave multi-country banking crisis from becoming a global economic catastrophe. That ought not to be too hard. Thanks to the growing importance of emerging markets, the world economy has become more resilient to trouble in its richer corners. Capital is plentiful outside Western finance. Now that commodity prices have tumbled, the rich world’s central banks have plenty of room to cushion their weakened economies with lower interest rates. And although public-debt burdens are already heavy, notably in Italy, Europe’s governments, like America’s, have enough public funds to prevent a capital-starved banking system dragging their economies down". The Economist.
Visto da paisagem, o mundo pede uma reformulação da legislação global. A velhinha legislação internacional já não serve. Estamos todos no mesmo barco, mas nem todos participamos na escolha do rumo e dos timoneiros.
